OK, I know that the above words might seem as daft as asking whether the sun will come up tomorrow or if tonight's episode of Eastenders will feature people being glum and not sufficiently brushing their hair. But is it an absolute, definite, cast iron certainty that Heath Ledger will win a posthumous Oscar for The Dark Knight? Well, I'm not so sure.

It is, of course, very likely that Ledger will be the victor in Best Supporting Actor on Sunday night, given that he's won every award going in the run up to the only gong show that really counts and, of course, he'd be entirely deserving. However, a few things make me suspect that his may not be the name called.

Firstly, Ledger never wanted an Oscar. As stated by his agent in this excellent piece in Entertainment Weekly he was relieved when he didn't win Best Actor for Brokeback Mountain and said that an Oscar would have no importance to him. Now, the Academy Award is easily Hollywood's highest honour and to give it to someone who wasn't around to enjoy it would be one thing (they've only done that once for Peter Finch in Network), but to give it to someone who didn't want one would be quite another.

Secondly, Ledger's nominated for a part in a comic book movie. Oscar doesn't like comic book movies. A fair number of the voters are older than religion and incredibly traditional - why else would they reward films like A Beautiful Mind? - so might well be reluctant to give a prize to a film they may well not have 'got' and to an actor working in a film they didn't particularly like. The Dark Knight is only nominated in technical categories elsewhere, so the Academy as a whole was not wholly enamoured.

Lastly, there are people in the rest of the nominees who have had a great recent run and could be in line for the 'Oscar for a body of work rather than one role' prize. Let's discount Philip Seymour Hoffman from the list (he has an Oscar already) and Michael Shannon (the nomination's enough). That leaves you Robert Downey Jr, who has come back from the brink to be one of the most bankable stars of the moment, something Oscar likes. However, Tropic Thunder is probably even less an Oscar film than The Dark Knight. That leaves Josh Brolin. His role in Milk is subtle, but still stand-out, and a great many people thought he should have received a Best Actor nomination for W, so those who wanted to vote for him there might instead shift their vote to Supporting Actor. He's also a man who went into the wilderness and came back with some fantastic roles, including a terrific turn in No Country For Old Men. That's a good body of work to reward, and he's certainly beloved by the industry. If there's a man to beat Ledger, as long a shot as it might be, my money's on Brolin.

Olly Richards