As you may well know, awards season kicks off in earnest this weekend with the bestowal of the Golden Globes. The rise of the Golden Globes to second most important award in the industry is something of an oddity for a couple of reasons. Firstly, they’re voted for by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a small group (thought to be 92, although exact figures are very hard to confirm) who all work in Hollywood but write for foreign publications - often not particularly respected ones – and are barely tolerated the rest of the year. Secondly, the awards’ status as a useful predictor for Oscar success has fallen apart in the last few years. The Globes separates the major awards into Drama and Musical/Comedy. But, in recent years, awards bodies have become less sniffy about comedy/musical roles (see Johnny Depp’s Oscar nod for Pirates of the Caribbean), making the Globes divisions redundant. But, there are some very fine performances and movies in this year’s ceremony, so here are my predictions for what should and what will win.

Best Supporting Actor

If Heath Ledger doesn’t win for The Dark Knight then the blogosphere will instantaneously implode in a pop of impotent rage. In any year he’d be a pretty sound bet, given that his weird, wired performance was actually the most effective of the year. But his sad death also garners an emotional vote. Of the others in the group Tom Cruise or Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder seem the only ones who could possibly – and it’s a possibility of the most distant remoteness – cause an upset. The former went a long way to repairing his damaged reputation with just a few self-mocking scenes and the latter was so hilarious that he caused no uproar by playing a white man playing a black man. Philip Seymour Hoffman was doing TOO. MUCH. ACTING in Doubt, and Ralph Fiennes’ buzz for The Reader is non-existent.

Should Win: Heath Ledger

Will Win: Heath Ledger

Best Supporting Actress

Could it go to Winslet, who is always terrific, has a dual nomination (as lead for Revolutionary Road) and has been nominated so many times that the voters should want to give her something? Quite possibly. Or Penelope Cruz, for Vicky Christina Barcelona, her first English-language role to bring wide acclaim? Marisa Tomei has won the most awards from critics’ boards, so she should be the frontrunner for The Wrestler. Amy Adams in Doubt is making up the numbers. However, a near-unknown is probably the most deserving. Viola Davis has only a small clutch of scenes in Doubt, but as a mother whose son may or may not have been abused, she steals the whole film. That said, the HFPA are a star-struck bunch and like there prizes to go to someone dazzling. I think they’ll vote with their starry eyes and pick Winslet.
Should Win: Viola Davis

Will Win: Kate Winslet

Best Actor – Drama

This is a two horse race between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. Penn has been given the nod by most critic boards for his portrayal of Harvey Milk, America’s first openly gay politician. However, he’s not very press friendly and that’s a big black mark for the HFPA. Some also find his performance a touch mannered. Reward Rourke would be a much more heartwarming story. He was a once hot actor who burned out and then came back as a once hot wrestler who burned out. Also, he’s amazing in the film. Put me in Team Rourke.

Should Win: Mickey Rourke

Will Win: Mickey Rourke

Best Actress – Drama

Hmmm, tough call. If you believe the glitch on the Globes sight that showed Hathaway as the winner yesterday, then she’s a cert. Though that was almost certainly a bug, she’s probably favourite. Rachel Getting Married provided her first really meaty role and she ate hungrily. Also, everybody likes her, but, and this could count against her, a lot of people really hate the film. Kristen Scott Thomas had heat for I’ve Loved You So Long, but that’s cooled. Streep’s turn in Doubt is either a barnstormer that makes the film or a storm that just blows over the whole barn and derails the story. Angelina Jolie could surprise. She’s epic in Changeling – the best she’s been – and it’s surprising that she’s not more fancied for the prize. Winslet in Revolutionary Road is, again, excellent. But is she too subtle to stand out?

Should Win: Kate Winslet

Will Win: Angelina Jolie

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
Don’t expect any of the nominees to appear on Oscar’s shortlist, despite their brilliance. All are too ‘out there’ and it was pretty slim pickings in this years comedy performances. Javier Bardem for Vicky Christina Barcelona? Heh, just don’t see it. James Franco for Pineapple Express? Wonderful, but too wacky for awards. Dustin Hoffman for Last Chance Harvey? I had to Google to remind myself what he was in. Brendan Gleeson is very good in In Bruges, but not stand-out. Colin Farrell on the other hand. It’s his best performance in years, possibly best full stop, and so my money’s going on him. He’s been out of the limelight for ages and it would be a great return.
Should Win: Colin Farrell
Will Win: Colin Farrell

Best Actress – Comedy/Musical

Barring a complete loss of all sense by the voters – which is never impossible – Emma Thompson, Rebecca Hall, Frances McDormand and Meryl Streep could all stay at home and watch the show in their pyjamas while chips dipped in milkshake (what, I’m the only one who likes that?). This is going to Sally Hawkins for Happy Go Lucky. She’s a real possibility for the Best Actress Oscar, while the others won’t even get a sniff of the podium, at least for these roles.

Should Win: Sally Hawkins

Will Win: Sally Hawkins

Best Director
Danny Boyle should be the favourite for Slumdog Millionaire, his best since Trainspotting and irrefutably most assured directorial achievement. But something tells me David Fincher might grab it. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is a director’s film above all else – which is almost the only flaw of the film, that it’s more about presentation than emotion - and he uses so many elegant tricks, cuts and gorgeous shots of snowy streets that it would be no crime to reward him. Hmmm, I just don’t know. OK…
Should Win: Danny Boyle
Will Win: Dann…No, David Fincher

Best Picture – Comedy/Musical
The most underwhelming category. They’re all good pictures, but there’s not one that would count in the best of the year. Burn Afer Reading is lower-level Coens, which is still perfectly good. Vicky Christina Barcelona is mid-level Woody Allen, which are simultaneously pleasing and boring. Mamma Mia is hugely popular, but not for me, or probably the voting board – name a more divisive film this year? Happy-Go-Lucky is probably the best reviewed, but not popular with a lot of Mike Leigh fans. For me, In Bruges is the best of the bunch. It’s witty, silly, surreal and probably the best fun I had with a comedy this year. But it’ll go to Happy-Go-Lucky.
Should Win: In Bruges
Will Win: Happy-Go-Lucky

Best Picture – Drama
The Reader hasn’t got a shot in hell. Don’t expect it to appear on the Oscar shortlist, and if it does feel free to confront every single voter and ask them if they actually saw The Dark Knight or Wall-E, which were better than at least three on this list. Frost/Nixon and Revolutionary RoadShould Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire 

Olly Richards