Is it just me or did yesterday's list of BAFTA nominees have a fair few glaring omissions, and rather more glaring inclusions? The 'British Oscars' have long been more than a touch eccentric - this is the awards body that decided The Fifth Element had better effects than Titanic and that Atonement was the best film of 2007, yet not the best British film, despite being, well, British -but this year's list risks pushing the awards towards irrelevance. Unless you can be viewed as a reasonable barometer of Oscar success - which are, let's face it, still the only awards anybody really cares about - then you are just an also ran, and BAFTA may be missing some vital Oscar contenders.

Let's leave aside the Best Film and Best Director categories, which seem largely on the money - although the middling The Reader doesn't deserve its place, which should have gone to either The Wrestler or Revolutionary Road - and instead focus on the acting awards, which is where some very odd choices have been made.

BAFTA famously likes to recognise British talent - or talent from British films - over all other countries (film awards shows are NOT the Olympics; we're not trying to beat other nations!), which has pushed out some more deserving contenders. Now, I count Slumdog Millionaire as my favourite film among all nominees, and my favourite of the year so far, but I do not see how Dev Patel or Freida Pinto can be considered to have given among the best performances of the past twelve months. They were good, certainly, but those were not roles that really demanded a huge amount from the actors. Slumdog wasn't a film for great performances, it was one about a great story and a director finding brilliant ways to tell and control that story. Compare those performances to the likes of Leonardo Dicaprio in Revolutionary Road, Viola Davis in Doubt or even Colin Farrell in In Bruges and it starts to make their selection look a bit silly and giddy over the fact that a British film is the (rightful) frontrunner in all the major awards ceremonies. Viola Davis is still a very much possible winner of the Best Supporting Actress Oscar, so leaving her out is just daft.

Then there's the Best Actress category, which is just plain screwy. Yes, Kate Winslet won two Golden Globes, but before that win she was not a frontrunner for Oscar success, at least as Best Actress. The frontrunners were, and quite possibly still are, Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married and Sally Hawkins in Happy Go Lucky. Where are they on this list? If the Oscar nominations come out next week and include both those women then the BAFTAs will again look irrelevant and quaintly out of touch.  It's a strong category, but pushing Winslet to supporting for The Reader, despite it technically being a lead role, would have been more sensible. Supporting Actor is also a tad weird (Brad Pitt in Burn After Reading? Really?), but Heath Ledger has that sewn up, so the rest of the nominees are really just making up the numbers.

There is, of course, the argument to be made that the BAFTAs are trying to be a bit different and separate themselves from the Oscar race, but that's not really the way to make an awards show important. A few years ago the BAFTAs became a real event on the road to the Oscars, when Harvey Weinstein decided that they might have some influence on at least the British band of Academy Awards voters and brought over any talent nominated for his films, causing others to follow suit, but it's slipping back into fustiness with its most recent nominees. Come on BAFTA, forget the whole British part and just focus on the films.

Olly Richards

As you may well know, awards season kicks off in earnest this weekend with the bestowal of the Golden Globes. The rise of the Golden Globes to second most important award in the industry is something of an oddity for a couple of reasons. Firstly, they’re voted for by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a small group (thought to be 92, although exact figures are very hard to confirm) who all work in Hollywood but write for foreign publications - often not particularly respected ones – and are barely tolerated the rest of the year. Secondly, the awards’ status as a useful predictor for Oscar success has fallen apart in the last few years. The Globes separates the major awards into Drama and Musical/Comedy. But, in recent years, awards bodies have become less sniffy about comedy/musical roles (see Johnny Depp’s Oscar nod for Pirates of the Caribbean), making the Globes divisions redundant. But, there are some very fine performances and movies in this year’s ceremony, so here are my predictions for what should and what will win.

Best Supporting Actor

If Heath Ledger doesn’t win for The Dark Knight then the blogosphere will instantaneously implode in a pop of impotent rage. In any year he’d be a pretty sound bet, given that his weird, wired performance was actually the most effective of the year. But his sad death also garners an emotional vote. Of the others in the group Tom Cruise or Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder seem the only ones who could possibly – and it’s a possibility of the most distant remoteness – cause an upset. The former went a long way to repairing his damaged reputation with just a few self-mocking scenes and the latter was so hilarious that he caused no uproar by playing a white man playing a black man. Philip Seymour Hoffman was doing TOO. MUCH. ACTING in Doubt, and Ralph Fiennes’ buzz for The Reader is non-existent.

Should Win: Heath Ledger

Will Win: Heath Ledger

Best Supporting Actress

Could it go to Winslet, who is always terrific, has a dual nomination (as lead for Revolutionary Road) and has been nominated so many times that the voters should want to give her something? Quite possibly. Or Penelope Cruz, for Vicky Christina Barcelona, her first English-language role to bring wide acclaim? Marisa Tomei has won the most awards from critics’ boards, so she should be the frontrunner for The Wrestler. Amy Adams in Doubt is making up the numbers. However, a near-unknown is probably the most deserving. Viola Davis has only a small clutch of scenes in Doubt, but as a mother whose son may or may not have been abused, she steals the whole film. That said, the HFPA are a star-struck bunch and like there prizes to go to someone dazzling. I think they’ll vote with their starry eyes and pick Winslet.
Should Win: Viola Davis

Will Win: Kate Winslet

Best Actor – Drama

This is a two horse race between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. Penn has been given the nod by most critic boards for his portrayal of Harvey Milk, America’s first openly gay politician. However, he’s not very press friendly and that’s a big black mark for the HFPA. Some also find his performance a touch mannered. Reward Rourke would be a much more heartwarming story. He was a once hot actor who burned out and then came back as a once hot wrestler who burned out. Also, he’s amazing in the film. Put me in Team Rourke.

Should Win: Mickey Rourke

Will Win: Mickey Rourke

Best Actress – Drama

Hmmm, tough call. If you believe the glitch on the Globes sight that showed Hathaway as the winner yesterday, then she’s a cert. Though that was almost certainly a bug, she’s probably favourite. Rachel Getting Married provided her first really meaty role and she ate hungrily. Also, everybody likes her, but, and this could count against her, a lot of people really hate the film. Kristen Scott Thomas had heat for I’ve Loved You So Long, but that’s cooled. Streep’s turn in Doubt is either a barnstormer that makes the film or a storm that just blows over the whole barn and derails the story. Angelina Jolie could surprise. She’s epic in Changeling – the best she’s been – and it’s surprising that she’s not more fancied for the prize. Winslet in Revolutionary Road is, again, excellent. But is she too subtle to stand out?

Should Win: Kate Winslet

Will Win: Angelina Jolie

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
Don’t expect any of the nominees to appear on Oscar’s shortlist, despite their brilliance. All are too ‘out there’ and it was pretty slim pickings in this years comedy performances. Javier Bardem for Vicky Christina Barcelona? Heh, just don’t see it. James Franco for Pineapple Express? Wonderful, but too wacky for awards. Dustin Hoffman for Last Chance Harvey? I had to Google to remind myself what he was in. Brendan Gleeson is very good in In Bruges, but not stand-out. Colin Farrell on the other hand. It’s his best performance in years, possibly best full stop, and so my money’s going on him. He’s been out of the limelight for ages and it would be a great return.
Should Win: Colin Farrell
Will Win: Colin Farrell

Best Actress – Comedy/Musical

Barring a complete loss of all sense by the voters – which is never impossible – Emma Thompson, Rebecca Hall, Frances McDormand and Meryl Streep could all stay at home and watch the show in their pyjamas while chips dipped in milkshake (what, I’m the only one who likes that?). This is going to Sally Hawkins for Happy Go Lucky. She’s a real possibility for the Best Actress Oscar, while the others won’t even get a sniff of the podium, at least for these roles.

Should Win: Sally Hawkins

Will Win: Sally Hawkins

Best Director
Danny Boyle should be the favourite for Slumdog Millionaire, his best since Trainspotting and irrefutably most assured directorial achievement. But something tells me David Fincher might grab it. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is a director’s film above all else – which is almost the only flaw of the film, that it’s more about presentation than emotion - and he uses so many elegant tricks, cuts and gorgeous shots of snowy streets that it would be no crime to reward him. Hmmm, I just don’t know. OK…
Should Win: Danny Boyle
Will Win: Dann…No, David Fincher

Best Picture – Comedy/Musical
The most underwhelming category. They’re all good pictures, but there’s not one that would count in the best of the year. Burn Afer Reading is lower-level Coens, which is still perfectly good. Vicky Christina Barcelona is mid-level Woody Allen, which are simultaneously pleasing and boring. Mamma Mia is hugely popular, but not for me, or probably the voting board – name a more divisive film this year? Happy-Go-Lucky is probably the best reviewed, but not popular with a lot of Mike Leigh fans. For me, In Bruges is the best of the bunch. It’s witty, silly, surreal and probably the best fun I had with a comedy this year. But it’ll go to Happy-Go-Lucky.
Should Win: In Bruges
Will Win: Happy-Go-Lucky

Best Picture – Drama
The Reader hasn’t got a shot in hell. Don’t expect it to appear on the Oscar shortlist, and if it does feel free to confront every single voter and ask them if they actually saw The Dark Knight or Wall-E, which were better than at least three on this list. Frost/Nixon and Revolutionary RoadShould Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire 

Olly Richards

For most of us humble plebes the festive season is the highlight of the year: goodwill is expressed to all, joy is shared, and gifts are given and received. But in Hollywood Christmas is a mere warm-up for the annual industry love-in that begins in earnest on January 11th with the naming of the Golden Globe winners - the American motion picture industry's second most prestigious prize.

The biggest prize of course is Oscar. One of these precious statuettes can add hundreds of millions of dollars to a picture's bottom line and hoist a star into the history books. An Oscar is the Olympic Gold of entertainment: once given it can never be taken away.

As ever, one of the most interesting categories at this year's biggest shindig will be Best Actor. While Arm Pitt, Frank Langella and little Leo DiCapuccino  all look like they've got their nominations tied up (for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Visitor and Revolutionary Road) - their presence at the party could be cursory with it looking increasingly like the real rumble for votes will be between to Mickey Rourke's performance as a washed-up brawler in The Wrestler and Sean Penn's homosexual politician in Milk.

While the self-congratulatory back-slapping, the studio adverts and the lobbying might get a little much for the more genuine amongst us, it's great to see Mickey - clearly hungry for prizes and secure in the knowledge that an opportunity like this may not arise for him again - foregoing the usual butt-sucking and coming out of the blocks with all his guns blazing and his target in sight.

And so it is that David Posner of The Daily Beast has got his gossip-hungry hands on a text message sent by Rourke to a 'Los Angeles entertainment honcho':

Look seans an old friend of mine and i didnt buy his performance at all - thought he did an average pretend acting like he was gay besides hes one of the most homophobic people i kno (sic)

Now, balanced dramatic criticism this 'aint, but a comment like this can spark up a firestorm at this time of year. Hollywood prefers to keep its dirty laundry to itself while displaying only false smiles and forced congeniality. The attack on Penn's performance would have been enough but to brand him as a gay-hater in front of the oh-so-fashionably-liberal grandees of one of America's most exclusive clubs look set to tread a fine line between being woefully impolitic and sowing an all important seed that many Academy members will find it hard not to remember come the day they sit down to vote.

I happen to think that a little bit more honesty in the awards season would give the whole rigamole some refreshingly bitter top-notes to balance out the overwhelmingly saccharine theme,  but then I am often wrong. It could be that this tight race, once tainted by personal and professional slights, might become iredeemably tipped in favour of a less-deserving performance by Pitt or Langella and the entire process rendered as farce. What do you think?

SL

It’s strange what people will resort to selling in times of economic meltdown; family airlooms, organs, boogie, you name it. The sale of Scarlett Johansson's used tissue for $5,300 (£3,600) on eBay yesterday evening was not however the result of a loose back-pocket, but quite simply a case of good old Christmas Spirit.

Whilst appearing on US talk show Tonight, the sniffly star accepted a tissue from presenter Jay Leno. After clearing her nostrils, twice, and wiping a little saliva crust off the side of her mouth, Johansson thoughtfully placed the rare specimen into a bag and signed it, promising the proceeds to hunger charity USA Harvest.

Slightly ridiculous no doubt, but why not? If the way to get people giving to chariety is through movie star excrement, then let’s put used hankies back on the shelves. An Amy Winehouse kleenex could well feed a small nation. It could also help spread the common cold faster and further afield than ever before, but all for a worthy cause.

Rather than genuine Christmas spirit, Johansson more likely did it purely for The Spirit - the upcoming Frank Miller-directed graphic novel adaptation which sees the actress star alongside Jaime King, Gabriel Macht, Dan Gerrity, Eva Mendes and Samuel L. Jackson.

Boasting both a formidible cast and an already reliable fan-base, there seems little need for marketing stunts. However, with high-class competition from the likes of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and (debatably) Valkyrie, all hitting cinemas next weekend, The Spirit is right to make the most of any promotional opportunities it can get its leathery mits on. So if you’re looking for some last-minute stocking fillers, loo-roll claiming Jacksons’ juices or a few Miller-muck encrusted wet wipes could well prove the perfect satsuma accompaniment. Tempted?

Charlotte Balnave